Conquering the quake: The West's efforts to predict the unpredictable
Graphic by Megan Troutman
Just six days after Italy participated in the Great Earthquake ShakeOut Drill — a worldwide earthquake preparedness procedure — Italy was hit Oct. 26 by a devastating 6.4 magnitude earthquake causing buildings to collapse, tunnels to cave in and highways to crumble.
In the weeks preceding this same drill, the NAU Office of Emergency Management realized Flagstaff is dangerously underprepared for earthquake emergency situations, yet Flagstaff is capable of experiencing an earthquake of similar or greater magnitude.
Northern Arizona, contrary to popular belief, sits near a major fault line. The Lake Mary Fault, which is a focus of study for David Brumbaugh, NAU professor and director of the Arizona Earthquake Information Center, is an 80-mile-long fault line that extends into south Flagstaff. The fault carries enough tectonic tension to release a quake with a 7.0 magnitude.
“If the entire fault slipped, which is what they call a worst-case scenario, then it would generate about a 6.9 earthquake,” said Brumbaugh. “In the last two years [December 2014], we had a fairly good size earthquake, 4.2, did a minor amount of damage and also got people pretty anxious.”
While Brumbaugh said a 4.2 magnitude earthquake does not carry the potential to cause widespread damage, an earthquake carrying a 6.9 or 7.0 magnitude certainly would.
“We keep an eye on this [seismic] activity, obviously, because of the hazard consequences and the safety of the local residents,” Brumbaugh said.
Earthquakes happen every hour worldwide as the Earth breathes through its tectonic plates. Many of these earthquakes, though, do not break a magnitude 2 and are not felt. Generally, Brumbaugh said, an earthquake must be at least a 2.5 magnitude before noticeable shaking.
Marc Burdiss, director of the Office of Emergency Management and Preparedness, said northern Arizona could experience damage to highways I-17 and I-40, plus railroad damage.
“We have a train every 15 minutes through Flagstaff, so the likelihood that we would have one with hazardous materials is also a concern, as well as the underground pipeline breaks where we would lose connectivity to the outside world — we’d be cut off as an island,” said Burdiss. “And then, we have the potential for just massive injuries, and our hospital would have to, pretty much, set up tents and work with people outside. The potential to lose utilities is very real.”
Along with the Lake Mary Fault, parts of Colorado and New Mexico harbor the Rio Grande Rift. The rift is comprised of several faults and basins that travel down through central Colorado toward New Mexico. Seismologists studying the rift had previously been convinced of its inactivity; however, recent GPS findings show the rift is extending at speeds undetectable to the human eye. While numerous studies done by seismologists at the University of Colorado Boulder concluded there was a low-probability for impending destruction, the tectonic movement still hints earthquakes can occur in unexpected places.
In fact, the Southwest is ripe with seismic activity. The Wasatch Fault in Utah has a major earthquake every 350 to 400 years and its last devastating quake took place approximately 350 years ago. Seismologists have stated there is an 18 percent chance Wasatch county will be hit with a large earthquake resulting in billions of dollars worth in damage within the next 50 years.
The San Andreas Transform Fault, a much larger seismic hotspot than both the Lake Mary Fault and the Wasatch Fault, stretches 800 miles along the West Coast and is well known for possessing a high potential for destruction, especially in California.
It was not until 1977, however, that Congress passed the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act, and charged the National Science Foundation with spearheading overall earthquake mitigation efforts in the United States. That same year, Congress also created the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program. The program was implemented to reduce the amount of property damage and the number of casualties during an earthquake.
California has been a leader in implementing innovative alert systems to warn of an imminent earthquake. The ShakeAlert, for example, has created a network of early-warning broadcasts sent to nearly all grade schools, universities and state agencies across southern California when geologists predict an earthquake is about to hit. The system advises people to exit buildings and move toward open areas to avoid the risk of falling objects and collapsing buildings.
California has also played a vital role in recent years to raise awareness about the dangers earthquakes pose to not only the Southwestern states, but also to the rest of the world.
The Great ShakeOut Drill, for example, was an idea that came out of the Southern California Earthquake Center approximately eight years ago. ShakeOut is an annual drill performed on the third Thursday in October throughout households, schools and offices worldwide to practice the procedure for self-protection during an earthquake.
NAU’s participation in the drill sparked the realization that not only are the Flagstaff residents generally misinformed about the dangers of earthquakes, but the city itself does not have the means to support the population in case of an emergency, whether it is caused by an earthquake, flood or other natural disaster.
“We’re in the initial stages, and so [the drill] we held last week here at NAU was not really a response exercise to figure out what we would do, it was the initial steps of ‘what questions do we not have answers to?’” Burdiss said.
The NAU Office of Emergency Management is currently evaluating the university’s preparedness for a potential earthquake. In this phase of their research, Burdiss and his team are working to identify what details and resources are missing from the city’s emergency plan before disaster strikes.
Burdiss said the Office of Emergency Management is using a hypothetical 6.4-magnitude earthquake in their simulations — a magnitude lower than what the Lake Mary Fault is capable of, yet one that has proven to be highly destructive.
“The Italy earthquake [in August] that devastated a town — that’s actually the scenario we’re going to be using. That’s a devastating earthquake. It’s 200 times more powerful than the one that occurred, the 4.7 magnitude, in Kachina Village,” Burdiss said.
During their research, the NAU Emergency Management team is going beyond simply listing where to find the most readily available emergency supplies. Instead, they are working with engineers to analyze the durability of each building on NAU’s campus, local businesses to find safe places to hold students in case campus is unsafe and the county and state emergency management departments to plan out the fastest route to get emergency supplies from another city or county.
“I’m not sure anyone is prepared for a large catastrophic earthquake,” Burdiss said. “I think that’s the secret that doesn’t need to be a secret. I don’t think there’s a single entity in this nation that is prepared for a large 7.0 earthquake or greater. There’s not a lot you can do.”
Additional reporting contributed by Portia Griefenberg, Sophia Mitrokostas and Taylor Trujillo.
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